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Monday, July 13 2020 @ 01:58 pm ACST

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International clubs in AFL by 2032?
Authored by: Brett Northey on Monday, July 11 2011 @ 10:39 pm ACST

We're struggling to support 2 in SA!  But a third for WA is quite conceivable.

My one worry is that with so much TV money in this and the next deal, footy departments are now huge and the players are expecting big pay.  With more teams that gets spread thinner or the TV rights have to go up.

With media changing so fast it's hard to know if that is feasible.  And it will need more viewers.  Where will they come from?  Obviously winning a bigger slice of Australia's most populous state, NSW, is a key.  A bit more in QLD too.  But hard to grow viewing in the other states since they are quite high already.  I guess that's one reason why NZ continues to appeal to me, as getting a slice of a few million people there has to help grow the pie.

But other than going outside of Australia I do see some growth restrictions, so I don't entirely agree with cos that "too many teams in Melbourne" is necessarily a  myth.  I think it can support an unusually large number, such as 5 or 6 but I wonder about 9 plus Geelong.  Like you said thought Troy, not something we need to worry too much about, economics and the AFL and I suspect state and national governments will have the biggest say in these things.

Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN
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International clubs in AFL by 2032?
Authored by: Harley Vague on Tuesday, July 12 2011 @ 11:59 am ACST

The theory is that you need 400k~500k of population catchment area to support an AFL team (and that population to be resceptive to AFL and centralised).In theory WA could have another team whilst Tasmania ,Gold Coast and Canberra would struggle .I think you can add Geelong into that mix ! Nine teams in Melbourne is at the lower end of viability but Melbourne is predicted to continue to expand .

The reality is that a third Perth team would struggle and add little to the football equation .Clubs in Tasmania , Canberra and the Gold Coast have to survive on much lower attendances if only because their stadia are small . Geelong manages well because it has the new "boutique" structure .In Melbourne it's hard to see some clubs regain market share which is the underlying problem ,the unequal sharing of resources ..

The TV rights was a sensational  result but it was built on the addition of two new teams , a potential new market and FOX gambling on picking up new AFL subscriptions . Future rights will probably not change too much except if the situation is repeated  with the addition of new audiences .

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