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Is this the first step towards the Official World Rankings?
Authored by: Brett Northey on Tuesday, March 16 2010 @ 08:49 pm ACDT


Just looking through the numbers, my gut feeling is that there is not sufficient range. With an expected scale of 0 to 100, yet values all between 31 and 58, only 27% of the range is covered. 10 teams are huddled within 6.5 points.

I guess the question is - will this spread out as more games are played, or does the system need adjusting?

Slight surprises are how low Canada, Japan and Sweden are. And South Africa are clearly much better, but under this system will take a while to move up the rankings.

I'd still be quite uncomfortable with the system, but new to the international itinerary this year are the European Championships and the senior Oceania Cup, which will add many more games to the system, giving teams a chance to settle into more appropriate positions and newer footy countries to qualify.

Please note that if countries are agreeable to this system then over time, and it will take some time, we will go back through the data publicly so that everyone knows exactly which games do and do not qualify for the rankings. We'll also lay out some more of the exact details of how the system works.

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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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Is this the first step towards the Official World Rankings?
Authored by: Cam Homes on Wednesday, March 17 2010 @ 11:04 am ACDT

Brett
Japan has managed to beat Spain twice, India and Samoa. Samoa being the only higher ranked team that it has beaten.
South Africa have beaten Japan, Spain, China, and most recently Denmark, USA and Ireland. Those last performances had them rise from 13th out of 15, to 8th out of 18. Their next match may well see them rise further up the ranking where you THINK they should be.
The number of games played and being played is as I have said before, the systems biggest drawback. As more matches are played a truer picture will emerge. The only way that we can test that is if, on the whole, higher ranked teams keep beating lower ranked teams and improving teams occasionally having some wins over huigher ranked teams. Have a look thru the scheme and that appears to be happening.

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Is this the first step towards the Official World Rankings?
Authored by: Brett Northey on Wednesday, March 17 2010 @ 12:35 pm ACDT


Regarding the rank of those other teams, I'm not questioning the data, I'm just saying that in terms of their actual ability, they aren't quite placed where I think they deserve to be. Obviously any settled system has to stick to its rules, so I'm not saying they be moved. But any scientist/mathematician when examining a model of the real world will always look to anomalies and ask the question "Is this a fault in the measurements or the calculations, or in my system (indicating the rules MAY need to be changed), or maybe an unavoidable consequence of quite reasonable rules"?

To have such a system widely accepted these are the kinds of criticisms we have to accept and discuss constructively.


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Brett Northey - Co-founder and Chief Editor of WFN

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